No third option.....
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Very true. He has very strong niche support (to be generous, this support is in most states and isn't only the college/millennial crowd, but it stops there). He is not bringing in new people to the fold. And I don't see new people coming on when he has the onslaught of the Trump (and republican/moderate) socialism/communism hyperbole hurled his way. It will come from the HRC moderate set as well, even if he is the nominee, I guarantee that. The moderate neoliberal Dems are dead, at least for a long, long while, if Bernie wins the nomination, and especially the presidency.
The US is super religious, but I don't see that impacting people's voting patterns to a critical degree regarding candidates religion (outside the staunch and established Democrat vs Republican split that we have always seen) Now if we have a "devout" atheist, yeah that would be a different story, but I don't see Jewish as different than Catholic in this instance, and we got over that hump in the 60s. Look at the previous table in the Dem Campaign thread, hardly a difference in voting patterns from McCain to Romney.Hype wrote: ↑Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:29 amI wish he had a better shot, and was 30 years younger, but there has never been a(n openly) non-Christian President, and there has only been one Catholic President (and four Unitarians...). I'd like to be able to say that the "anybody but Trump" sentiment would win out here, but so many more people don't vote than do that it's hard to say this with a straight face.
I couldn't think of a worse candidate for the Democrats than Biden, I really couldn't.
IMO, it's going all the way to the Democratic Convention. Next week is going to be critical for Biden - if he shows up under 3rd again, I think he's toast. That said, I think he'll outlast Warren who I think is already on life-support. I really think it's going to see-saw between the top 3 every primary Tuesday, especially when Bloomberg starts collecting delegates.
Young people, by and large, just don't vote in anything like the percentages that older folks do. In cases like the Boomers, this can be overcome by pushing hard to increase the ratio slightly, since the sheer numbers are so much larger than other generation-blocs. This does seem to be happening again with Millenials, as you note. But Millenials aren't the youngest voting bloc -- there's a generation after them that is even more progressive, but smaller. They're far less likely to vote in large enough numbers to swing anything. Meanwhile, Millenials are statistically aging out of their youthful liberalism, the same way the Boomers did.SR wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:55 amYeah, the split delegates could easily result in a split convention. Biden's super pac is sending out distress signals for solidarity, but we'll see. His rose garden approach to campaigning has clearly not worked.
Warren's collapse fascinating to watch.
If the numbers are to be trusted based on the limited demographic of NH, we can count on about a 50/50 split from white voters between the liberal and the moderate candidates. Every cycle is the same as we look to the young voters to emerge and actually vote, but the interesting fact is there are more millennials of voting age than there are boomers alive.
Progressivism is good for some things, but it is by no means a panacea.
I agree withbeverything you say here. (Oh...except for the Gentrification comment. That requires a whole other thread.....) I just don't have the time/bandwwidth or interest to write a dissertation about it...Hype wrote: ↑Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:52 pmI think you're talking about multiple separate (but sometimes mixed together) issues there. Progressivism as a political ideology just implies trying to make progressive changes in policy and implementation aimed toward making things better over time. It's opposed by conservatism, which in its simplest form is simply the desire to maintain (i.e., conserve) vessels of perceived value, and to avoid unnecessary risks that inhere in change.
There's nothing in either of those that implies fiscal irresponsibility, or fiscal responsibility (and certainly nothing in progressive politics requires gentrification... what the hell even is this? Quintessential progressive policy is to massively increase city social services...). Pointing to instances of administrative or expense bloat in progressive governments doesn't settle the matter, since you'd have to provide the broader context in these cases. Sometimes progressive governments are elected after a disastrous run by prior governments, where existing institutions, infrastructure, etc., are in disrepair and disarray. In these cases, it's understandable that some of that continues, or is irreparable, or is exacerbated by some policies. But that doesn't tell us that these policies are bad, or unnecessary, or ill-advised, or whatever.
"If You Are Not a Liberal at 25, You Have No Heart. If You Are Not a Conservative at 35 You Have No Brain"Hype wrote: ↑Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:56 amYoung people, by and large, just don't vote in anything like the percentages that older folks do. In cases like the Boomers, this can be overcome by pushing hard to increase the ratio slightly, since the sheer numbers are so much larger than other generation-blocs. This does seem to be happening again with Millenials, as you note. But Millenials aren't the youngest voting bloc -- there's a generation after them that is even more progressive, but smaller. They're far less likely to vote in large enough numbers to swing anything. Meanwhile, Millenials are statistically aging out of their youthful liberalism, the same way the Boomers did.SR wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:55 amYeah, the split delegates could easily result in a split convention. Biden's super pac is sending out distress signals for solidarity, but we'll see. His rose garden approach to campaigning has clearly not worked.
Warren's collapse fascinating to watch.
If the numbers are to be trusted based on the limited demographic of NH, we can count on about a 50/50 split from white voters between the liberal and the moderate candidates. Every cycle is the same as we look to the young voters to emerge and actually vote, but the interesting fact is there are more millennials of voting age than there are boomers alive.
The most annoying thing about all of this is that for the past 50 years, more Americans have been progressive than not, but they all live on the coasts in two States.
Translation: "I may nor be right, but I'm NEVER wrong".mockbee wrote: ↑Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:25 amBernie will be fine in Texas. I now think he'll win.
I am very curious how the black vote goes (both turnout and %) in South Carolina. Thats the turning point if there is one.![]()
If he actually does acheive 1,991 delegates before convention, the DNC is finished, or will have to burn the place down.....![]()