Estimated first week sales for The Great Escape Artist

[Deconstruction]

From HitsDailyDouble:

Coming off a hit Alternative radio track in “Irresistible Force,” Capitol/EMI’s Jane’s Addiction return with The Great Escape Artist, its first album in eight years, since Strays in 2003, looking at first-week sales of between 25-30k.

[JOEinPHX]

Where was my prediction thread for this? i want to know who's going to win.

[Pandemonium]

Where was my prediction thread for this? i want to know who's going to win.

The thread:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=335&p=8889&hilit=+sales#p8889

[creep]

amazon sales ranks so far for the releases this week: jane's in third place. i'm surprised.

Jane's Addiction - The Great Escape Artist #27
Chris Isaak - Beyond the Sun #114
Everlast - Songs Of The Ungrateful Living #79
M83 - Hurry Up, We're Dreaming #12
Patrick Stump [of Fall Out Boy] - Soul Punk #1099
Puscifer - Conditions Of My Parole #17
Shelby Lynne - Revelation Road #40
Noel Gallagher - High Flying Birds #205

on itunes they have #11 and #12 so if you add both up they would probably be up there in the top 5.

m83 #4
puscifer #5
jane's #11 and #12
everlast #16
patrick stump #19

[jptm]

i predicted 10-20K first week sales... we'll see.

[sonny]

15,000

[kv]

hell even indy labels can put out sales over that and thats to a younger community who likes to dl/stream...i bet they do over 20

[creep]

i'm guessing around 25k

can anyone make a good argument to me that streaming the record before it comes out helps sales? i just don't understand bands doing this.

[Pandemonium]

hell even indy labels can put out sales over that and thats to a younger community who likes to dl/stream...i bet they do over 20

I've been surprised at how some fairly major bands who used to pull in million plus sales per album back in the 90's and are still decent draws live barely crack 5K - 10K for a new studio album now. Basically, if a band can't get their new album on shelves at the big Walmart, Best Buy, Target, HMV etc chains, there's no way they'll sell more than a couple thousand cds, tops.

[Pandemonium]

i'm guessing around 25k

can anyone make a good argument to me that streaming the record before it comes out helps sales? i just don't understand bands doing this.

Yeah, I'm not convinced streaming an entire new album ahead of it's release date is a smart move. That was originally the purpose of a single (or two) in advance of a record's release - to drum up interest without giving the whole package away. It's a big risk, especially if the album's a dud out of the gate.

[sonny]

i'm guessing around 25k

can anyone make a good argument to me that streaming the record before it comes out helps sales? i just don't understand bands doing this.

if it's good, it's good for sales. in this case, it sucks, so it could be very bad for sales.

i really think downloads should be free. if people like yr shit they'll buy a deluxe CD or vinyl or shirt or go to a show. it's like a sample, where you win some goodwill.

the money made from downloads on these releases has to be very low. i mean $7.99 on amazon for just about any new album. even itunes has similar pricing. is it even worth it for that?

i would prefer streaming from the bands website, rather than a service like itunes.

[Jasper]

The fellas should come out with a tour CD. Something pretty sweet...not in a jewel case. Something you want to put on your mantle. Sell it relatively cheap to encourage buyers. These things are usually EP length. This is where those instrumental tracks should go. Dave solo record?* Who was paying for the studio time? Who hired the producer and co-producer/bassist? When the hell is Dave ever gonna release an album? If it needs to be fleshed-out, throw some live stuff on, or whateverthefuck. That's the whole thing with tour CDs - you lighten up a bit. How about the good qaulity Slow Divers without the overdubs? Throw that fucker on there. Fun stuff like that could even make the shows more attractive.

*Apparently Dave said those unreleased tracks we heard on the TGEA promo vids would show up on a DN solo release.

[Pandemonium]

i really think downloads should be free. if people like yr shit they'll buy a deluxe CD or vinyl or shirt or go to a show. it's like a sample, where you win some goodwill.

I really don't think that's the case any more. It's pretty much a fact that the average consumer is more than willing to sacrifice quality and any sort of physical "carrier" media for a cheaper (or free) file or streamed content. The failure of the high-end audio formats like SACD, DVD-Audio, etc show that a wall has not only been hit, but the decline and fall of cds and the peaking of legit pay-download music illustrates that the majority of music consumers have come to the point they simply don't want to have to pay for music *period* even if they have to settle for shitty quality lo-res MP3 audio. When many people listen to music primarily through iPods and crummy pc speakers and music producers purposely master band's music for that medium, why go for something as high-end audio as a cd or vinyl record, especially if you can go to a Bit Torrent site or a buddy's pc and get it for free?

Sure the hardcore fan will pay for a physical vinyl cd, dvd, blu-ray or deluxe edition box of their favorite album or movie and that sort of business model is profitable when you're a major band like U2 or Pink Floyd or at least have a large, loyal fanbase like Pearl jam but for a band that's mostly self-financed playing theaters or clubs that sells maybe 10k of their latest record even through a major label, that's not gonna work long term.

It's why most long established bands are content to tour their hits year after year and not bother investing any time or effort into new albums.

[Pandemonium]

The fellas should come out with a tour CD. Something pretty sweet...not in a jewel case. Something you want to put on your mantle. Sell it relatively cheap to encourage buyers. These things are usually EP length. This is where those instrumental tracks should go. Dave solo record?* Who was paying for the studio time? Who hired the producer and co-producer/bassist? When the hell is Dave ever gonna release an album? If it needs to be fleshed-out, throw some live stuff on, or whateverthefuck. That's the whole thing with tour CDs - you lighten up a bit. How about the good qaulity Slow Divers without the overdubs? Throw that fucker on there. Fun stuff like that could even make the shows more attractive.

*Apparently Dave said those unreleased tracks we heard on the TGEA promo vids would show up on a DN solo release.

The Cult's spent the last few years exploring basically all these options and discovering it's a losing proposition.

In 2006 when they reunited for the half dozenth time and toured, they hooked up with InstantLive, who produced CD-R sets of that night's show right off the soundboard. So right after the show for about $20, you could buy a copy of that show or order it later off the website. Years later, InstantLive is still trying to sell off the extra stock from that tour for $5 a show off their website. In more recent tours, they've tried selling shows burned to USB thumb drives as well as vinyl "limited edition" EPs of new music all sold at shows. Production problems, too much or no stock depending on the show, just a whole host of issues have dogged them at every turn trying to get unique "fan-oriented" products available at shows. Now a lot of their problems can be traced straight to the band themselves and who they have working for them and producing their stuff. Not every band can be a Trent Reznor and make the fan experience as involving and satisfying. In fact, it really seems there's very few bands that can or more accurately *want* to do so.

[JOEinPHX]

So let me get this straight...

M83 is outselling them just like i said?

No way!

[AdmitI]

60to 70k sold in the first week.... good for #5 on the chart...

Strays sold around 100k in it's first week... so I think my estimate is in the ballpark

[sonny]

i really think downloads should be free. if people like yr shit they'll buy a deluxe CD or vinyl or shirt or go to a show. it's like a sample, where you win some goodwill.

I really don't think that's the case any more. It's pretty much a fact that the average consumer is more than willing to sacrifice quality and any sort of physical "carrier" media for a cheaper (or free) file or streamed content. The failure of the high-end audio formats like SACD, DVD-Audio, etc show that a wall has not only been hit, but the decline and fall of cds and the peaking of legit pay-download music illustrates that the majority of music consumers have come to the point they simply don't want to have to pay for music *period* even if they have to settle for shitty quality lo-res MP3 audio. When many people listen to music primarily through iPods and crummy pc speakers and music producers purposely master band's music for that medium, why go for something as high-end audio as a cd or vinyl record, especially if you can go to a Bit Torrent site or a buddy's pc and get it for free?

Sure the hardcore fan will pay for a physical vinyl cd, dvd, blu-ray or deluxe edition box of their favorite album or movie and that sort of business model is profitable when you're a major band like U2 or Pink Floyd or at least have a large, loyal fanbase like Pearl jam but for a band that's mostly self-financed playing theaters or clubs that sells maybe 10k of their latest record even through a major label, that's not gonna work long term.

It's why most long established bands are content to tour their hits year after year and not bother investing any time or effort into new albums.

i realize lots of people would download free music if offered. if it's good music though, yr gonna get some kind of purchase in the future. obviously the days of selling 10 million records etc is over or at least trending to much less.

i just think you buy a lot of good will, giving away a lesser quality version of yr albums/songs. at the very least stream it and go from there. most fans want yr music and will pay, lets say $10 for it. but really, how much of that $10 do you get for the digital version?? as a band, yr luck if you get $1 from each sale.

now, lets says yr jane's addiction and you sell 20,000 copies the first week and it goes down from there. you end up selling lets say 100,000 copies. if we take half that and attribute it to digital sales, then you've made $50,000 to split between 3 members. if you don't owe capitol money for recording or advances to tour, etc.

it's just not worth it. give it away and make a sale in another area. you could increase those numbers by 10 fold and it's still only $500,000 to split between 3 people, who then have to pay the previously mentioned shit, plus lawyers agents. it's nothing.

i just don't think there is any money in record sales for artists anymore. the record company is gonna get theirs.

sell yr vinyl/CD at the live shows, skip the record company altogether and make 100% profit. instead of 100,000 copies, i can sell 10,000 copies and make the same money.

[CaseyContrarian]

You're close. There should be as few middlemen between artist and fan as possible. With non-major label bands, you typically can stream from their site or buy direct. Downloads need not be "free," but there should be a blanket compulsory license for both the sound copyright and composition copyright to keep prices low/predictable for services and distribute the money to creators with a clear revenue percentage not held against debt to the label (or publisher).

i'm guessing around 25k

can anyone make a good argument to me that streaming the record before it comes out helps sales? i just don't understand bands doing this.

if it's good, it's good for sales. in this case, it sucks, so it could be very bad for sales.

i really think downloads should be free. if people like yr shit they'll buy a deluxe CD or vinyl or shirt or go to a show. it's like a sample, where you win some goodwill.

the money made from downloads on these releases has to be very low. i mean $7.99 on amazon for just about any new album. even itunes has similar pricing. is it even worth it for that?

i would prefer streaming from the bands website, rather than a service like itunes.

[CaseyContrarian]

So let me get this straight...

M83 is outselling them just like i said?

No way!

I was with you there too.

[CaseyContrarian]

i really think downloads should be free. if people like yr shit they'll buy a deluxe CD or vinyl or shirt or go to a show. it's like a sample, where you win some goodwill.

I really don't think that's the case any more. It's pretty much a fact that the average consumer is more than willing to sacrifice quality and any sort of physical "carrier" media for a cheaper (or free) file or streamed content. The failure of the high-end audio formats like SACD, DVD-Audio, etc show that a wall has not only been hit, but the decline and fall of cds and the peaking of legit pay-download music illustrates that the majority of music consumers have come to the point they simply don't want to have to pay for music *period* even if they have to settle for shitty quality lo-res MP3 audio. When many people listen to music primarily through iPods and crummy pc speakers and music producers purposely master band's music for that medium, why go for something as high-end audio as a cd or vinyl record, especially if you can go to a Bit Torrent site or a buddy's pc and get it for free?

Sure the hardcore fan will pay for a physical vinyl cd, dvd, blu-ray or deluxe edition box of their favorite album or movie and that sort of business model is profitable when you're a major band like U2 or Pink Floyd or at least have a large, loyal fanbase like Pearl jam but for a band that's mostly self-financed playing theaters or clubs that sells maybe 10k of their latest record even through a major label, that's not gonna work long term.

It's why most long established bands are content to tour their hits year after year and not bother investing any time or effort into new albums.

i realize lots of people would download free music if offered. if it's good music though, yr gonna get some kind of purchase in the future. obviously the days of selling 10 million records etc is over or at least trending to much less.

i just think you buy a lot of good will, giving away a lesser quality version of yr albums/songs. at the very least stream it and go from there. most fans want yr music and will pay, lets say $10 for it. but really, how much of that $10 do you get for the digital version?? as a band, yr luck if you get $1 from each sale.

now, lets says yr jane's addiction and you sell 20,000 copies the first week and it goes down from there. you end up selling lets say 100,000 copies. if we take half that and attribute it to digital sales, then you've made $50,000 to split between 3 members. if you don't owe capitol money for recording or advances to tour, etc.

it's just not worth it. give it away and make a sale in another area. you could increase those numbers by 10 fold and it's still only $500,000 to split between 3 people, who then have to pay the previously mentioned shit, plus lawyers agents. it's nothing.

i just don't think there is any money in record sales for artists anymore. the record company is gonna get theirs.

sell yr vinyl/CD at the live shows, skip the record company altogether and make 100% profit. instead of 100,000 copies, i can sell 10,000 copies and make the same money.

Sonny, you are right about most of this, but remember: major label artists never made money from album sales (OK, maybe two did). The labels always "got theirs." Publishing (and touring) was always the biggest revenue source for musicians. And to get the publishing royalties, you have to be one of the songwriters. Performers on majors are fucked. That's why there are so many famous but broke pop stars.

[creep]

So let me get this straight...

M83 is outselling them just like i said?

No way!

I was with you there too.

yeah i was wrong (for once). what really surprised me is that puscifer is too.

[Larry B.]

yeah i was wrong (for once).

have you forgotten about your super stock advice?

[creep]

yeah i was wrong (for once).

have you forgotten about your super stock advice?

actually three days after my brilliant advice the stock went up 25% so if you sold then it was great advice.

[Larry B.]

ummm... didn't it plummet?

I think I remember your Apple advice... "dude, buy that shit NOW, it's gonna skyrocket i tells ya!"

the next day...

"I hereby resign from Apple" -Steve Jobs

[creep]

wrong guy. i have never recommended apple. not a huge fan.