Rick Santorum wants to ban porn

[Hokahey]

Obama won't pick a new VP, and you're all nuts if you think this country would have more issue electing a white woman than a black man.

Firsts:

-------------------------------------Black-----Woman
Supreme Court---------------1967------------1980----------+13 years

State Governor---------------1869------------1924----------+55 years

Congress:

Senator-------------------------1870------------1920 (appointed) 1932 (elected)------ +62 years!!!!!!!!!

House --------------------------1870------------1916----------+46 years



Need I go further...................?


I'm not saying Hillary being elected was impossible, but it would have been more shocking.........

And I still disagree. Those timeframes were more compelling near 100 years ago for most.

Are we already forgetting recent history?

Are we forgetting there was nearly a challenge at the convention from Hillary? It took Obama inviting her to a summit and obviously promising her the Sec of State gig to get her to back off for the sake of the entire party.

This was Hillarys time and she would have been president had anyone but Obama been her nominee opponent.

I was a hardcore Democrat during that election and worked on Obama's campaign locally in the St. Louis area.

I remember how that election unfolded and what the consensus expected result was prior to "Hope and Change" transforming the landscape.

Obama won, fair and square. That's like saying well, we totally would have won the game, if we made that last shot...... I am talking about precedent, and 100 years is really not that long ago......

It's not at all like that. It's more like saying had Jordan not been in the NBA the Jazz would have won the title.

Point being, there's really no debating that Hillary would have had the nom and was widely expected to get it even during the primaries. There can be a debate about if she would have won the presidency, but she was polling just as well if not better than Obama against likely Republican candidates.

So yes. Take out Obama and all indicators are that Hillary wins the presidency, which a lot of people were expecting to happen.

Obama, as a junior Senator, and a black man, was certainly not expected to win anything.

So in terms of what would have been more surprising, I don't see how you can make the case for it being Hillary when she was expected to win all along.

And a hundred years ago might as well be a thousand years ago when it comes to modern history.

The world is a DRASTICALLY different place now than it was in 1912.

[mockbee]

The world is a DRASTICALLY different place now than it was in 1912.

When speaking of people's sensibilities and natures, in many, if not most, ways.......not. It was a big deal when the first black senator, Mississippi senator-elect Hiram Revels, was elected in 1870. It was a big deal when Obama was elected....


Going with your analogy, who's to say the Jazz wouldn't loose to some other team??? If you like science, all we have to go on is precedent....

[Hokahey]

The world is a DRASTICALLY different place now than it was in 1912.

When speaking of people's sensibilities and natures, in many, if not most, ways.......not. It was a big deal when the first black senator, Mississippi senator-elect Hiram Revels, was elected in 1870. It was a big deal when Obama was elected....


Going with your analogy, who's to say the Jazz wouldn't loose to some other team??? If you like science, all we have to go on is precedent....

You make some good points, but I stand by this statement:

So in terms of what would have been more surprising, I don't see how you can make the case for it being Hillary when she was expected to win all along.

[mockbee]

So in terms of what would have been more surprising, I don't see how you can make the case for it being Hillary when she was expected to win all along.

Fine. But it would have gone against common precedent prior to that particular election in '08.

[Hype]

What does "It was expected" mean? How can that be true? I didn't expect Hillary to win all along. Who did? "Lots of people"? Maybe, but so what?

[Hokahey]

What does "It was expected" mean? How can that be true? I didn't expect Hillary to win all along. Who did? "Lots of people"? Maybe, but so what?

Polls dude. Polls.

[Hype]

What does "It was expected" mean? How can that be true? I didn't expect Hillary to win all along. Who did? "Lots of people"? Maybe, but so what?

Polls dude. Polls.

I was going to post a whole bunch of polls from back then, but then I realized it would be easier to say: All the polls?

Clinton was in the race before Obama, and she had the most support before he entered. It seems reasonable to think that it takes some time for a new contender to make up the gap. The fact that she was the preferred candidate by some measures at one time doesn't really show that people 'expected' her to get the nomination (or win the presidency) -- it just shows that at one time people supported her more than the other candidates, for whatever reason(s). I don't think this shows that Americans would have voted for a female president. I hope that it does, but I'm cynical about it. Look at the breakdown by sex here:

[Hokahey]

What does "It was expected" mean? How can that be true? I didn't expect Hillary to win all along. Who did? "Lots of people"? Maybe, but so what?

Polls dude. Polls.

I was going to post a whole bunch of polls from back then, but then I realized it would be easier to say: All the polls?

Clinton was in the race before Obama, and she had the most support before he entered. It seems reasonable to think that it takes some time for a new contender to make up the gap. The fact that she was the preferred candidate by some measures at one time doesn't really show that people 'expected' her to get the nomination (or win the presidency) -- it just shows that at one time people supported her more than the other candidates, for whatever reason(s). I don't think this shows that Americans would have voted for a female president. I hope that it does, but I'm cynical about it. Look at the breakdown by sex here:

Why are you posting a poll from 2010 after Obama was already the president?

That's not the time period we're discussing. And I think it's fair to say that expectations can be set by polls. There's also the broader notion of it being Hillary's time and amongst Democrats it was widely expected that she would be the nom. It's not entirely possible to prove what an expectation was amongst a wide audience but there's supporting evidence. A quick search provided the following:

From TIME, 2007

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article ... 30,00.html

Hillary Clinton is the clear front-runner to win the Democratic Party's nomination for President in 2008

Understanding it was but one article, I contend this was the general consensus at the time.

It was EXPECTED that Hillary would have the nom.

In this thread it's been suggested it would have somehow been more surprising had she received it when that simply wasn't the reality of the time.

Through that same time period in to late 2007 she consistently led all Republican nominees in the presidential polls.

Her support waned as Obama entered the picture as a stronger candidate, which was certainly not the case starting out.

So to summarize:

At least as late as November 2007, Hillary soundly led all polls as the Dem nominee and against all Republican candidates for President.

And yet somehow it's being debated that it was expected that she would be the nominee and more surprising had she won over Obama.

Amongst political pundits and observers this was not the reality at all. Most people believed Hillary was going to the white house.

The surprise was Obama.

[Artemis]

[chaos]