Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

Discussion relating to current events, politics, religion, etc
Post Reply

Will Trump be elected President?

No way in hell. Not terribly concerned.
3
12%
Maybe. But quite unlikely.
10
40%
A toss up.
5
20%
Quite possibly.
6
24%
Very likely. Start making your preparations.....
1
4%
 
Total votes: 25

Message
Author
User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#1 Post by mockbee » Wed May 25, 2016 3:32 pm

Image


I know this is similar to the Trump running thread. But we are in a whole new ballgame now and wondering where people are at.
I know I have done a complete 180 on my thoughts on the matter..... :noclue:

I think American democracy has never been at such a crossroads since the Civil War. :scared:

Here is Andrew Sullivan's take:
Is America’s Democracy Ripe for a Dictatorship?

Why Andrew Sullivan thinks Trump may defeat Clinton for the U.S. presidency.
By Jacob Weisberg


In New York magazine’s May 2 cover story, Andrew Sullivan writes that “when a democracy has ripened” to a maximally free state, as described by Plato, “a would-be tyrant will often seize his moment.” That moment, Sullivan argues, may be upon America. Jacob Weisberg interviewed Andrew Sullivan about his article on an episode of the Slate Trumpcast. To listen to that podcast, click the player below:

A lightly edited transcript of that conversation follows.
Jacob Weisberg Jacob Weisberg

Jacob Weisberg is chairman and editor-in-chief of The Slate Group and author of The Bush Tragedy. Follow him on Twitter.

Jacob Weisberg: This was a fantastic piece. I think it’s one of the most important things written about the phenomenon of Trump. But the really striking thing about it is that you see Trump not just as a dangerous politician or as a demagogue, but a threat to the survival of American democracy.


Andrew Sullivan: I do think that his general attitude, his general understanding of how to exercise power, is inimical to the American idea. The American idea is that power should be dispersed and that there should be no king.

And yet he himself seems incapable of believing he could ever have any such a position except that of a monarch of some sort. He has no real understanding of a non–zero-sum engagement. And so the idea of sharing power, or being checked by other branches of government, or even checked by the press seems anathema to him. And I think when you have someone with that kind of temperament walking into our constitutional system, you are kind of setting yourself up for a constitutional crisis.

If there’s a founding idea of America, it’s that monarchy is unacceptable. You and I hear in everything Donald Trump says that he is the would-be dictator. That those are his instincts. Why do so many of his supporters not hear that monarchical tone in his speech?

Well, I think some of them do and like it. And some of them just don’t take him seriously. There’s something that I’ve noticed in people who support him is just that they will say they support him, but then they say, “Well, I don’t really think he’s going to be able to do all those things he says.”

And there is a sense also that he himself by completely reversing himself within minutes on what might appear to be solid platform planks also kind of adds a sort of element of unseriousness to his policy proposals. But I think both are compatible in a way. The vagueness about policy is simply because he’s not interested in policy. What he’s interested in is power. And I think it was [Trump campaign chairman] Paul Manafort who said, he’ll deal with policy after he gets elected, but we’re not going to debate that before.

So he’s really, really interested in the wielding of his own power. And that’s not the American way. It’s not a democratic way of being. It’s an anti-democratic notion of being. And I think there’s also an element in the culture in which Washington is viewed as entirely broken. And therefore they want to blow it up and use this guy to blow it up.

And then to do whatever he wants. And so I think that at the root of this is a very un-American desire to abolish self-government. To say, OK, we live in such a divided, fractured, polarized society, we can’t really solve our own problems through our traditional constitutional processes. We’ll elect this tyrant and he will just do it somehow.

When you use these terms like un-American, undemocratic, neo-fascist, you’re really picking up on something that is new with Trump in modern American politics, which is violence and the threat of violence as part of the campaign. Talk about how Trump has brought violence into American politics in a way that isn’t precedented.


We’ve had plenty of rowdy and difficult public meetings in the history of American politics. Goodness knows, extraordinary levels. And in modern times, too. But the one thing you’ve also always had when a protester stands up, or a heckler tries to shut something down, the speaker, whoever he or she is, and whatever office they’re running for, will generally say something like this: I respect your views. This is a free country. You can air this. But please, allow me to respond. And if they don’t respond, or if they start being cantankerous, they say, Well look, we’re going to ask security to come and take you away. And that is what we have as a civil democratic norm. And what he says in contrast is, Look at this person. What a disgusting person this is. I would like—and I’m directly quoting—to punch that person in the face. I want that person to be carried out on a stretcher as in the old days. I want violence inflicted upon people who are protesting or heckling me.

That is an extraordinarily new thing in American politics. It’s anathema to a tradition of civil discourse. But what it says in the end is that whatever differences we have, in the end they will be resolved by force. Not by persuasion. And that is a core violation of a basic democratic norm. And that’s the basis of our civilization.

So there’s an old-fashioned kind of mob rule, which is these rallies that turn violent and where he encourages the violent. But there’s a new kind of mob rule, which is this digital social media mob rule.


And then the people who dare speak up or out about him are then deluged with staggering amounts of invective and vile and hatred. I think of someone like [journalist] Julia Ioffe. I must say that one of the things that’s interested me both in Julia’s case, and in some other conservative cases, is the rank anti-Semitism that’s also out there now. Which, of course, you would understand from this kind of movement.

But that is also the forefront of most of the attacks. This is mob rule of an extraordinarily esoteric variety, but it definitely chills free speech. It chills the criticism of our public officials. And thereby deeply weakens our democracy.

I have to say, my jaw dropped when I saw the headline on Breitbart calling Bill Kristol a “renegade Jew.” I mean, I don’t think Trump is himself an anti-Semite, but he’s sure bringing it out of the woodwork.


Oh yeah. But again, we shouldn’t miss that the anti-Muslim rhetoric is in a different border. Again, we talk about America, it seems to me as an immigrant to America that essential part of America, the reason it was founded in some ways was religious liberty at its very origins.

That you come here, you can worship whichever god you want, or none. And that this is a country that won’t judge you or have any laws or any restrictions upon that fundamental liberty. And yet his fundamental campaign promise is to deny anyone of a particular faith entrance to the United States. That’s an abolition of America. Similarly with torture. For a long time, it was a complete bedrock principle of the West that we do not subject human beings to torture of any kind. Now, this has been obviously breached and was fatally breached under the Bush administration.

Breached, but never acknowledged.


No, never fully acknowledged. But I think, you know, the senate report is pretty damning in this respect. But the difference here is that having opened that door a crack, Trump has just broken the door open entirely by saying not as Cheney would, that we’re not torturing in any way, that if we are torturing, we’re doing it because we have no other way to get intelligence.

Trump says, We should torture. Torture is great. And the point is torture is to terrify and intimidate our enemies. In other words, his view of torture is exactly that of ISIS. It is a demonstrative performative act of cruelty. And I think that’s the element in him that’s truly disturbing is that his hatred for the weak, his contempt for anybody who isn’t as strong as he is, or as he imagines himself to be. I find it inimical to my entire moral worldview.

It seems to me the one thing you can judge a person by is how he or she treats someone with less power than him or her. And it’s quite clear that he believes in punching down in a way that really reflects his massive insecurity.

He doesn’t believe there is any up to punch.


No, of course. No, he doesn’t. But nonetheless, the people he does punch tend to be vulnerable to him.

You argue that this is happening now not just because there’s this vile monster, Donald Trump. You actually call him a monster. I thought it was a well-chosen term. But because American democracy has become more susceptible to it. And the reason it has become more susceptible to someone like this is because it’s been getting more democratic. Can you explain what you’re talking about, about America getting too democratic?


I think there was always a concern among the founders that what they wanted to construct in America was not a pure, direct democracy, which they understood would be subject to the whims and passions and fads of the popular majority at any one particular moment. Now this may not be a very popular thing to say today, but it does seem to me important that there be some place for the will of the mob, for the will of the pure democratic majority to be restrained, to be channeled into more productive and less dangerous forms. And what’s happened through the democratization of media, through the collapse of elites in terms of the political parties, and through the further democratization of the Senate, and now actually having Supreme Court literally put up for election, in which the Republicans are currently saying even the Supreme Court should be subject to democratic rule really by the parties.

This is not what the founders intended. And so the safeguards that we used to have against an individual like this have been weakened or removed, so that if we could imagine him winning, and I think to be honest with you, I think he’s more likely to win at this point than Clinton.

Really?


Yes. I mean, I can’t prove that. That’s my instinct at this point, because he owns the narrative.

But were he to win, I think obviously he’d bring the House with him, probably the Senate, and then would have the Supreme Court. So there’d be nothing to stand between him and the people. And that’s a very dangerous position, especially when this individual is proposing a trade war with our biggest trade partners. He is proposing a reign of terror in the Middle East, at least demonstratively to smash, or destroy, or to cut the head off, whatever metaphors he uses, ISIS. But I don’t think he would sit back and pursue the current strategy. These are extraordinarily radical changes against which we would have almost no defense.

There was a response to your piece from our old friend Michael Lind I saw in the New York Times. And he said, “Well, America is not becoming more democratic. In fact, if you’re an ordinary person in America, you feel our process getting less democratic, and that you have less and less power over outcomes, and less and less sense that you have any control, which is the explanation of Trump.”


Well, yes, but I think that is true in one way, in the sense that the globalization that we’re experiencing, which really has occurred since the end of the Cold War. The fact that we did actually go through the democratic processes and pass NAFTA, for example. That has had a huge effect on the American economy in a way that America itself as a nation can’t fully control. And I think those of us who were very much for NAFTA need to be more cognizant that its political and cultural and social impact has been much graver than we thought it might have been, or would be.

But that’s not the same thing as having no ability to influence your political agenda, the world you live in. And as I try and point out, in general what’s been powering this election, what empowered the last two elections, is small-D democracy in the sense that Obama won twice through small donations against existing elite power structures.

Bernie Sanders, who rails constantly about how big money prevents democracy taking place, has had an extraordinary run in the primaries and has built a huge online and physical army of supporters, again, without big money, without a super PAC. And you see the people who represent elites as much not doing at all well, staggering under the onslaught of these popular currents.

So, yes, I can understand why some feel powerless in the wake of technological and trading change, but I don’t think it is proven that that can’t be addressed within our current system. In fact, I think it’s been addressed more potently than I remember in a very long time.

You said we should stop beating up on the Republicans that were trying to stop Trump. It was maybe still possible to stop Trump when you wrote your piece. Leave us with some hope here. What’s the scenario? You’ve left me very depressed.


I’ve been so depressed. I’ve been barely able to get out of bed. Here’s what I’m trying to believe. I would have hope, to be honest with you, if the alternative was not Hillary Clinton. And I’m not saying this as a Hillary hater, although I am one.

But you have no qualms about supporting her under the circumstances. And the Republicans have been—one of the things that surprised me a little bit is there are a lot of prominent Republicans who agree with just about everything you’ve said and have said it in terms nearly as strong, and they still stop short of saying they’re going to vote for Hillary Clinton. They say they’re not going to vote, or they’re not sure what they’re going to do, or they’re going to look for an alternative that doesn’t exist. What’s wrong with Hillary Clinton? She’s not the end of the world if the alternative is Donald Trump.

She’s not. And that’s why I have no qualms in supporting her if that’s what it is.

That’s what it is.


Well, we don’t know yet if a third party, if a third option is available. I know that some people are seriously trying to figure that out. The fact that there’s no space between me and Bill Kristol on this is somewhat sobering. But nonetheless, I do think that the only way she could win is by splitting the non-Democratic vote. And if they can do it, and I think it’s their patriotic duty to try.


Andrew Sullivan is both a Clinton hater of longstanding, and prone to freakouts about Democratic presidential candidates blowing elections. His pants-wetting breakdown after the first Obama/Romney debate continues to amaze. More...

creep
Site Admin
Posts: 10341
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 9:51 am

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#2 Post by creep » Wed May 25, 2016 6:13 pm

i think the thought of trump becoming president will bring people out to vote that normally wouldn't. like obama did.

i also think hillary will do well in the debates with him. you never know though.

User avatar
JOEinPHX
Posts: 6637
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 3:55 pm
Location: The Sea

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#3 Post by JOEinPHX » Wed May 25, 2016 6:30 pm

Things to consider:

1. Mitt Romney had a 7 point lead on Obama two weeks before the election. STILL LOST.

2. The same people (Bernie supporters) saying Hillary has no chance against Trump also claim the only reason she is beating Bernie is because she is cheating by using all her connections, and that her rise to the Presidency has already been pre-determined.

Ok, so, if Hillary has this all rigged, and is within a few % point of Trump in every national Poll, how do you think she's not going to use the same connections to put her over the top?

3. Republicans are outnumbered. There is no war happening right now where a sitting president can say "We have to stay the course" like George W. Bush did.

4. Bernie supporters who claim they won't vote for Hillary will most likely change their tune when Bernie is no longer an option and the possibility of a Trump presidency suddenly becomes real.

5. Trump is going to keep talking for another 5 months. He will have to debate Hillary during that time. He's going to not only look like a fool to a lot of people who previously supported him, but he's not going to say anything new to energize anyone on the fence. All Hillary has to do is come across as more likable than she is portrayed.

I think it's 50/50, but if the Clintons are indeed as powerful and shady as Trump and every GOP supporter claim they are, then they should have no problem rigging this in their favor.

Trump just doesn't have the electoral process connections to compete, he has to rely strictly on the popular vote.

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#4 Post by mockbee » Thu May 26, 2016 12:51 pm

creep wrote:i think the thought of trump becoming president will bring people out to vote that normally wouldn't.
That's what I'm concerned about...:noclue:

I don't think there is a mass of reasonable people that normally sit at home and don't vote, I think quite the opposite, and a lot of them associate with Trumps message that all politicians are the problem, no more discussion necessary, vote for me and I'll take care of it using any means necessary.....

:balls:

User avatar
guysmiley
Posts: 1544
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 10:46 pm
Location: PDX/Fukuoka Japan

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#5 Post by guysmiley » Fri May 27, 2016 10:07 am

:noclue: We survived 8 years of Bush. We'll survive whatever is next most likely. All this hyperbolic stuff is the same sensationalism we see every 4 years. "If the (whatever party) wins, it's the end folks"... What I'm more curious to know is, what all these people who show up at rallies do all day? Do they work? And why are there protesters outside Trump rallies? Are they hoping to change someone's mind? It all seems like a big waste of time and cognitive dissonance.
Last edited by guysmiley on Fri May 27, 2016 10:11 am, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
guysmiley
Posts: 1544
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 10:46 pm
Location: PDX/Fukuoka Japan

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#6 Post by guysmiley » Fri May 27, 2016 10:11 am

Also, while we talking about insanity, Bernie supports have jumped the shark. I like the guy, but come on, I think things aren't looking good for him. I see facebook posts from fanatic friends everyday about how they will never support Hilary. The left wing is imploding a bit too it seems. Everyone needs to chill the fuck out. :confused:

User avatar
perkana
Posts: 5394
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:28 pm

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#7 Post by perkana » Wed Jun 01, 2016 12:16 pm

So how many Bernie supporters would vote for Hillary to avoid Donald Trump?
I think it's worse not voting and let Trump win because his supporters will.

User avatar
kv
Posts: 8743
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 3:08 pm
Location: South Bay, SoCal

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#8 Post by kv » Wed Jun 01, 2016 1:40 pm

Most of them once Hillary wins the nomination.

I still don't see this election even being close... it's one thing to make a statement vote in a primary...

User avatar
perkana
Posts: 5394
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 9:28 pm

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#9 Post by perkana » Wed Jun 01, 2016 1:51 pm

I recently saw this to help me understand the whole process.

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#10 Post by mockbee » Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:22 pm

Okay, regardless of what people voted previously on this poll.

Say Donald Trump does get elected.

Is the appropriate response:

A: weeeeeeeeee........... this is going to be fun (or rather terrible), sort of like GWB.
:mad: :banana:


B: This is not going to be fun (rather catostrophic), but we need to just wait it out and hope/demand that our Constitution keeps the new "dictator" in check.
:neutral:


C: Donald Trump being elected would be in direct violation of our Constitution in terms of what he has stated he plans to do and Obama should enact martial law and remain President, until order can be restored to our democratic process.
:scared:



:noclue:

User avatar
Hype
Posts: 7028
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:44 pm

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#11 Post by Hype » Wed Aug 03, 2016 7:19 am

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/j ... ar-weapons
“I have to follow up with that, but I’ll be very careful here. Several months ago, a foreign policy expert on the international level went to advise Donald Trump, and three times he asked about the use of nuclear weapons. Three times he asked, at one point, ‘If we have them, why can’t we use them?” Scarborough said.

“Trump asked three times?” commentator Mike Barnicle asked.

“Three times in an hour briefing, ‘Why can’t we use nuclear weapons?’” Scarborough said again.

...

Scarborough turned the conversation back to Hayden, asking the retired general about the timeline and steps if a President chooses to use nuclear weapons. Hayden responded the system in place is “designed for speed and decisiveness. It’s not designed to debate the decision.”
Whatever shred of humour was left in the idea of a Trump presidency is gone. If he is elected, it won't be good for anyone, and we can only hope that existing checks and balances are enough to prevent him from doing irreparable damage.

I don't know if he will be elected or not, because I can't tell from the polling data whether there's enough support for Clinton, as opposed to just establishment endorsements, which she has lots of. I can't tell if centrist/moderate Republicans will be convinced by their leadership to vote Clinton, either. But that's probably what's needed.

User avatar
Matz
Posts: 3958
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2011 2:58 am
Location: Denmark

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#12 Post by Matz » Wed Aug 03, 2016 10:35 am

he's going to fall apart more and more over the coming monts and Hillary will win very comfortably

clickie
Posts: 4019
Joined: Sun Oct 16, 2011 8:15 am

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#13 Post by clickie » Wed Aug 03, 2016 11:13 am

Sounds like Donald wants to make nukes great again. He's got that itchy finger on the trigger . Just drop one of them big hiroshima bombs on someone.

He'll be remembered as the candidate who really didn't want to be president but ran for it anyway. And ultimately fucked up the republicans chances in 2016.

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#14 Post by mockbee » Wed Aug 03, 2016 5:01 pm

Matz wrote:he's going to fall apart more and more over the coming monts and Hillary will win very comfortably
:hs:



I don't think people outside the US understand the visceral hate people seem to have for Clinton and that Trump is actually very, very good in persuading a broad spectrum of white men (& women), the vast majority of our population, into really beleiving he is our only sane option.


Trump isn't falling apart in their minds, he is just closing the deal.

:wave:

User avatar
SR
Posts: 7838
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2011 12:56 pm

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#15 Post by SR » Wed Aug 03, 2016 6:11 pm

mockbee wrote:
Matz wrote:he's going to fall apart more and more over the coming monts and Hillary will win very comfortably
:hs:



I don't think people outside the US understand the visceral hate people seem to have for Clinton and that Trump is actually very, very good in persuading a broad spectrum of white men (& women), the vast majority of our population, into really beleiving he is our only sane option.


Trump isn't falling apart in their minds, he is just closing the deal.

:wave:
Hmm. I couldn't disagree more with the your two assertions, and am kind of confused as to where your thinking is on them. The hatred for hill was born here by Americans and it survived time, and now thrives here. It is used to every advantage and extrapolated into complete fabrications that still tread water as a result of it's blind and fanatical nature.

Trump doesn't thrive in persuading a broad spectrum of people either. His core are and will remain uneducated white men. And I do agree with you that he can persuade women; those that despise him seem to divide and multiply with daughter cells repeating every minute....24/7.

Did I miss something here? :hs:

User avatar
Matz
Posts: 3958
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2011 2:58 am
Location: Denmark

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#16 Post by Matz » Wed Aug 03, 2016 7:50 pm

mockbee wrote:
Matz wrote:he's going to fall apart more and more over the coming monts and Hillary will win very comfortably
:hs:



I don't think people outside the US understand the visceral hate people seem to have for Clinton and that Trump is actually very, very good in persuading a broad spectrum of white men (& women), the vast majority of our population, into really beleiving he is our only sane option.


Trump isn't falling apart in their minds, he is just closing the deal.

:wave:
David Axelrod said on CNN today that he's never seen a candidate self destruct the way Trump has in the past five days or so. The thing about the veteran, kicking out a baby or whatever it was from an event, Obama completely destroying him, a leading republican, I forgot who, proclaiming she's going to vote for Clinton.
And he's starting to talk about that the election will probably rigged, the guy's grotesque and does not have a chance in hell anymore. I wouldn't have said that a week ago, but now I'm absolutely sure. He's slipped in the poles too in the past few days, it's over....thankfully

User avatar
mockbee
Posts: 3468
Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 am
Location: Portland, OR

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#17 Post by mockbee » Wed Aug 03, 2016 9:48 pm

SR wrote:
mockbee wrote:
Matz wrote:he's going to fall apart more and more over the coming monts and Hillary will win very comfortably
:hs:



I don't think people outside the US understand the visceral hate people seem to have for Clinton and that Trump is actually very, very good in persuading a broad spectrum of white men (& women), the vast majority of our population, into really beleiving he is our only sane option.


Trump isn't falling apart in their minds, he is just closing the deal.

:wave:
Hmm. I couldn't disagree more with the your two assertions, and am kind of confused as to where your thinking is on them. The hatred for hill was born here by Americans and it survived time, and now thrives here. It is used to every advantage and extrapolated into complete fabrications that still tread water as a result of it's blind and fanatical nature.

Trump doesn't thrive in persuading a broad spectrum of people either. His core are and will remain uneducated white men. And I do agree with you that he can persuade women; those that despise him seem to divide and multiply with daughter cells repeating every minute....24/7.

Did I miss something here? :hs:
:noclue:

Seems you pretty much nailed it on the source for the hatred for Hillary and Trump just capitalizes on every morsel of bait that is out there. I would argue on the persuasion line that somehow, through his own calculated methods, Trump has snookered the media and, like you said, many, many white people in this country to the tune that he can pretty much say or do anything and it is seen as par for the course. There is a parade of mock outrage and then everyone moves on. Political decorum death by a million cuts, he has achieved that. It is a completely different set of standards for Hillary amongst the media and populace. That is being a master persuader. And it's not just the fact that HiIlary is a woman. Trump did the same thing to every threatening Republican candidate. In addition Hillary was able to make every Republican in the past who have grilled her in Congress look like sputtering slimeballs.


Now maybe Trump doesn't have enough gumption to keep this act going, but so far he has completely dominated the narrative.


Look at this, what word did she add? Trump did that.


Martha Raddatz is an American reporter with ABC News. She is the network's Chief Global Affairs Correspondent. She reports for ABC's World News Tonight with David Muir, Nightline, and other network broadcasts.

That's why I think it is so dangerous to just blow Trump off, as just some bumbling buffoon. If he were only a bumbling buffoon he would be in the dumps in the polls and he would not have won the Repub nomination.

User avatar
Mescal
Posts: 2394
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2011 7:23 am

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#18 Post by Mescal » Wed Aug 03, 2016 10:43 pm

Matz wrote:he's going to fall apart more and more over the coming monts and Hillary will win very comfortably
Yeah, I think so too.

And I can't really believe that there are enough nutty Americans out there to actually elect him as president

User avatar
Hype
Posts: 7028
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:44 pm

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#19 Post by Hype » Thu Aug 04, 2016 5:26 am

Mescal wrote:
Matz wrote:he's going to fall apart more and more over the coming monts and Hillary will win very comfortably
Yeah, I think so too.

And I can't really believe that there are enough nutty Americans out there to actually elect him as president
It's not that hard to believe. A lot of people are allied to one party or the other the same way they have a religion. And a lot of people just don't know enough about anything to think anything other than "I recognize that name." or "I remember him saying that one thing I agreed with that one time."

User avatar
guysmiley
Posts: 1544
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 10:46 pm
Location: PDX/Fukuoka Japan

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#20 Post by guysmiley » Thu Aug 04, 2016 5:42 am

Hype wrote:
Mescal wrote:
Matz wrote:he's going to fall apart more and more over the coming monts and Hillary will win very comfortably
Yeah, I think so too.

And I can't really believe that there are enough nutty Americans out there to actually elect him as president
It's not that hard to believe. A lot of people are allied to one party or the other the same way they have a religion. And a lot of people just don't know enough about anything to think anything other than "I recognize that name." or "I remember him saying that one thing I agreed with that one time."
Spot on. Never underestimate stupid.

User avatar
SR
Posts: 7838
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2011 12:56 pm

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#21 Post by SR » Thu Aug 04, 2016 6:04 am

mockbee wrote:
SR wrote:
mockbee wrote:
Matz wrote:he's going to fall apart more and more over the coming monts and Hillary will win very comfortably
:hs:



I don't think people outside the US understand the visceral hate people seem to have for Clinton and that Trump is actually very, very good in persuading a broad spectrum of white men (& women), the vast majority of our population, into really beleiving he is our only sane option.


Trump isn't falling apart in their minds, he is just closing the deal.

:wave:
Hmm. I couldn't disagree more with the your two assertions, and am kind of confused as to where your thinking is on them. The hatred for hill was born here by Americans and it survived time, and now thrives here. It is used to every advantage and extrapolated into complete fabrications that still tread water as a result of it's blind and fanatical nature.

Trump doesn't thrive in persuading a broad spectrum of people either. His core are and will remain uneducated white men. And I do agree with you that he can persuade women; those that despise him seem to divide and multiply with daughter cells repeating every minute....24/7.

Did I miss something here? :hs:
:noclue:

Seems you pretty much nailed it on the source for the hatred for Hillary and Trump just capitalizes on every morsel of bait that is out there. I would argue on the persuasion line that somehow, through his own calculated methods, Trump has snookered the media and, like you said, many, many white people in this country to the tune that he can pretty much say or do anything and it is seen as par for the course. There is a parade of mock outrage and then everyone moves on. Political decorum death by a million cuts, he has achieved that. It is a completely different set of standards for Hillary amongst the media and populace. That is being a master persuader. And it's not just the fact that HiIlary is a woman. Trump did the same thing to every threatening Republican candidate. In addition Hillary was able to make every Republican in the past who have grilled her in Congress look like sputtering slimeballs.


Now maybe Trump doesn't have enough gumption to keep this act going, but so far he has completely dominated the narrative.


Look at this, what word did she add? Trump did that.


Martha Raddatz is an American reporter with ABC News. She is the network's Chief Global Affairs Correspondent. She reports for ABC's World News Tonight with David Muir, Nightline, and other network broadcasts.

That's why I think it is so dangerous to just blow Trump off, as just some bumbling buffoon. If he were only a bumbling buffoon he would be in the dumps in the polls and he would not have won the Repub nomination.
As important as the analytics are, I am more interested in the sociology where Dump's popularity is concerned. He has taken the lowest known common denominator, reduced it, and made it a cause for maniacal celebration. He is a bumbling buffoon. Referring to nations as cities, openly demonstrating a complete absence of knowledge about Russian colonization/imperialism....the same with economics, open disdain for the Constitution's cornerstones, racism, misogyny are all 'punch in the face' indicators of it.

I mentioned elsewhere that I have been wrong on his trajectory just about every step of the way, but every indicator this week suggests that his veil is wearing thin. Whatever he's put in the water seems to be dissipating. Hype mentioned somewhere that the comedy is no more; I think it's just begun.....at least I hope so.

User avatar
Hype
Posts: 7028
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:44 pm

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#22 Post by Hype » Thu Aug 04, 2016 6:42 am

It can't be comedy in the traditional (Aristotelian) sense. Aristotle's distinction between comedic and tragic poetics, while more complicated and nuanced, demands that a comedic central character not merely rise to power, but also be sympathetic. The audience needs to want the protagonist to succeed. In a tragedy, you witness the downfall of a once great hero.

Trump's success could be construed as a tragedy, if we take the subject of the downfall to be the United States herself.
To the extent that people want Clinton to succeed (esp. as first female president) her story, if successful, would be a comedy.

You could argue that Trump's story is a satire. But no one wants to actually live in one of those. :jasper:

User avatar
SR
Posts: 7838
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2011 12:56 pm

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#23 Post by SR » Thu Aug 04, 2016 7:26 am

Hype wrote:It can't be comedy in the traditional (Aristotelian) sense. Aristotle's distinction between comedic and tragic poetics, while more complicated and nuanced, demands that a comedic central character not merely rise to power, but also be sympathetic. The audience needs to want the protagonist to succeed. In a tragedy, you witness the downfall of a once great hero.

Trump's success could be construed as a tragedy, if we take the subject of the downfall to be the United States herself.
To the extent that people want Clinton to succeed (esp. as first female president) her story, if successful, would be a comedy.

You could argue that Trump's story is a satire. But no one wants to actually live in one of those. :jasper:
I'll argue that his downfall will more closely mirror the confines of tragedy (hopefully), but where Dump is concerned , I think I'd align myself more with Plato's thoughts on theater than Aristotle's....maybe Hegel's. Pope wouldn't even consider it worthy of review. I think an academic look at this would be interesting, but until this nightmare unfolds it's just all too real now.

User avatar
Hype
Posts: 7028
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 7:44 pm

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#24 Post by Hype » Thu Aug 04, 2016 9:34 am

A better way to characterize the current state of affairs is as a bürgerliches Trauerspiel ala Lessing (contra Voltaire, Shakes, and the Greeks). But the problem is that Trump himself is really one of the bourgoisie in the first place, so his success wouldn't constitute a tragedy. He seems to have invented a new genre all of his own: the faux-billionaire cum reality-TV personality as pied piper of the vulgar... A comedy -- but without any humour, and a tragedy without a tragic hero.

So... just nihilism?

User avatar
SR
Posts: 7838
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2011 12:56 pm

Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#25 Post by SR » Thu Aug 04, 2016 11:30 am

And by extension it leavening Miller's argument out too, which again he defies. He's just blackguard.

Post Reply