Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

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Will Trump be elected President?

No way in hell. Not terribly concerned.
3
12%
Maybe. But quite unlikely.
10
40%
A toss up.
5
20%
Quite possibly.
6
24%
Very likely. Start making your preparations.....
1
4%
 
Total votes: 25

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SR
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Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#21 Post by SR » Thu Aug 04, 2016 6:04 am

mockbee wrote:
SR wrote:
mockbee wrote:
Matz wrote:he's going to fall apart more and more over the coming monts and Hillary will win very comfortably
:hs:



I don't think people outside the US understand the visceral hate people seem to have for Clinton and that Trump is actually very, very good in persuading a broad spectrum of white men (& women), the vast majority of our population, into really beleiving he is our only sane option.


Trump isn't falling apart in their minds, he is just closing the deal.

:wave:
Hmm. I couldn't disagree more with the your two assertions, and am kind of confused as to where your thinking is on them. The hatred for hill was born here by Americans and it survived time, and now thrives here. It is used to every advantage and extrapolated into complete fabrications that still tread water as a result of it's blind and fanatical nature.

Trump doesn't thrive in persuading a broad spectrum of people either. His core are and will remain uneducated white men. And I do agree with you that he can persuade women; those that despise him seem to divide and multiply with daughter cells repeating every minute....24/7.

Did I miss something here? :hs:
:noclue:

Seems you pretty much nailed it on the source for the hatred for Hillary and Trump just capitalizes on every morsel of bait that is out there. I would argue on the persuasion line that somehow, through his own calculated methods, Trump has snookered the media and, like you said, many, many white people in this country to the tune that he can pretty much say or do anything and it is seen as par for the course. There is a parade of mock outrage and then everyone moves on. Political decorum death by a million cuts, he has achieved that. It is a completely different set of standards for Hillary amongst the media and populace. That is being a master persuader. And it's not just the fact that HiIlary is a woman. Trump did the same thing to every threatening Republican candidate. In addition Hillary was able to make every Republican in the past who have grilled her in Congress look like sputtering slimeballs.


Now maybe Trump doesn't have enough gumption to keep this act going, but so far he has completely dominated the narrative.


Look at this, what word did she add? Trump did that.


Martha Raddatz is an American reporter with ABC News. She is the network's Chief Global Affairs Correspondent. She reports for ABC's World News Tonight with David Muir, Nightline, and other network broadcasts.

That's why I think it is so dangerous to just blow Trump off, as just some bumbling buffoon. If he were only a bumbling buffoon he would be in the dumps in the polls and he would not have won the Repub nomination.
As important as the analytics are, I am more interested in the sociology where Dump's popularity is concerned. He has taken the lowest known common denominator, reduced it, and made it a cause for maniacal celebration. He is a bumbling buffoon. Referring to nations as cities, openly demonstrating a complete absence of knowledge about Russian colonization/imperialism....the same with economics, open disdain for the Constitution's cornerstones, racism, misogyny are all 'punch in the face' indicators of it.

I mentioned elsewhere that I have been wrong on his trajectory just about every step of the way, but every indicator this week suggests that his veil is wearing thin. Whatever he's put in the water seems to be dissipating. Hype mentioned somewhere that the comedy is no more; I think it's just begun.....at least I hope so.

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Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#22 Post by Hype » Thu Aug 04, 2016 6:42 am

It can't be comedy in the traditional (Aristotelian) sense. Aristotle's distinction between comedic and tragic poetics, while more complicated and nuanced, demands that a comedic central character not merely rise to power, but also be sympathetic. The audience needs to want the protagonist to succeed. In a tragedy, you witness the downfall of a once great hero.

Trump's success could be construed as a tragedy, if we take the subject of the downfall to be the United States herself.
To the extent that people want Clinton to succeed (esp. as first female president) her story, if successful, would be a comedy.

You could argue that Trump's story is a satire. But no one wants to actually live in one of those. :jasper:

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Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#23 Post by SR » Thu Aug 04, 2016 7:26 am

Hype wrote:It can't be comedy in the traditional (Aristotelian) sense. Aristotle's distinction between comedic and tragic poetics, while more complicated and nuanced, demands that a comedic central character not merely rise to power, but also be sympathetic. The audience needs to want the protagonist to succeed. In a tragedy, you witness the downfall of a once great hero.

Trump's success could be construed as a tragedy, if we take the subject of the downfall to be the United States herself.
To the extent that people want Clinton to succeed (esp. as first female president) her story, if successful, would be a comedy.

You could argue that Trump's story is a satire. But no one wants to actually live in one of those. :jasper:
I'll argue that his downfall will more closely mirror the confines of tragedy (hopefully), but where Dump is concerned , I think I'd align myself more with Plato's thoughts on theater than Aristotle's....maybe Hegel's. Pope wouldn't even consider it worthy of review. I think an academic look at this would be interesting, but until this nightmare unfolds it's just all too real now.

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Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#24 Post by Hype » Thu Aug 04, 2016 9:34 am

A better way to characterize the current state of affairs is as a bürgerliches Trauerspiel ala Lessing (contra Voltaire, Shakes, and the Greeks). But the problem is that Trump himself is really one of the bourgoisie in the first place, so his success wouldn't constitute a tragedy. He seems to have invented a new genre all of his own: the faux-billionaire cum reality-TV personality as pied piper of the vulgar... A comedy -- but without any humour, and a tragedy without a tragic hero.

So... just nihilism?

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Re: Will Trump be elected President? (poll)

#25 Post by SR » Thu Aug 04, 2016 11:30 am

And by extension it leavening Miller's argument out too, which again he defies. He's just blackguard.

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