turkey on syria with a side of peace

[drwintercreeper]

it's starting to smell like turkey is getting ready to intervene in syria... i bring this up now because it feels like we are hitting the point that results in some collective action, or will within a month or so.

so we all know this revolt has been going on a year now; 10,000 dead, you guys know the story. the idea of buffer zones has been out in the public debate for awhile but nothing has happened thus far... yet a few things happened in the last week or so that got me thinking it may be about to go down. in the last two weeks, turkish rhetoric has gotten much harsher than it already was towards syria. there was a cross border shooting, and this week the turkish prime minister also happened to be in china (and, interestingly, visited the very sensitive xingjang region that is historically muslim and shares lingistic or other links with the turks... he's going to saudi on friday, and the saudis are already arming syrias sunni rebels.

i mention the xingjang thing because it strikes me as giving power to the turkish leader (and consequently, han china by proxy), which (call me conspiratorial) reeks of a quid pro quo (you scratch my balls, i will return thy favor)... ie something along the lines of 'drop your opposition to intervention with un cover and let us turks fuck these assholes, PLEASE!?'

now i am a young student of world affairs, so as doubtful as full-on libya-style intervention in syria seems, its hard for me to see how this plays out without some sort of action that really looks and smells like war. and once that starts, any turkish action will be 100% coordinated with and supported by the us if not nato, and you guys know how inflaming all the rest goes from there. it's a black hole.

obviously this all depends on bashar assad beginning to pull his army back from the cities this week, and if that happens you will see a slowdown in the rush to intervene as well as protests that are bigger than ever, which ultimately doesn't leave him in any better position...

i know i am rambling (one of a few reasons i so rarely post and instead just read you fuckers), but it seems to be building to the breaking point. where does it go from here? with or without turkish intervention, popular protests will return if the syrian army pulls back... does bashar escape to iran? does he stay and die? am i naive for just not seeing how he lives and sees this thing through on his terms?

please... discuss.

[Hype]

I don't really understand Syria. Libya I kind of understood (my grandparents lived there in the 60s, before Gaddafi...) but Syria... I don't understand what the hell it is or why Assad is doing what he's doing, or anything...

As for Turkish rhetoric... well, Turkey's been in negotiations to be a full EU member since 2005... would they really fuck up 7 years of work (really 50 years of work)... to attack Syria? Why? I don't get it.